Although everyone knows that this ideal harbor does not exist, today's politicians constantly try to convince their voters that such a harbor is within reach. That we will surely reach it in the next legislative period. In reality, however, politics is a constant maneuvering between shoals and storms.

And the leaked program statement of the emerging Czech government offers both approaches in one. The first is, of course, clearly populist, as it is a continuation of the election campaign. However, the second approach in this document indicates a certain maneuverability on the part of the new government.

You can't go wrong with promises

You don't have to be an economic expert to see that the new government is promising the impossible: no tax increases, better economic policy, the creation of a small, efficient state.

We have been hearing these slogans very often for twenty years, whether from the opposition or from the new coalition. Everyone wants an efficient, functioning state without debt.

The political reality is always different. Government debt is growing, and with it the salaries of politicians. This has not changed under any government since November 1989. But let's take a look at what Czech citizens can specifically look forward to in the next four years.

Priorities in the energy sector

The government wants to provide affordable energy. This is certainly a very good idea, because in a sense, the economy is nothing more than converted energy. In today's world, more than ever, affordable energy means more economic growth.

The newly formed government wants to give priority to nuclear energy. This, too, could be described as common sense.

However, where the new government's plans collide with reality is in the way this step is to be implemented. The most important means is to take over 100% control of the country's largest electricity producer, ČEZ, in order to strengthen the state's influence on energy prices. The problem, however, is that energy prices are determined by the market, not by the state. Furthermore, it is not a completely free market, but one that is subject to European regulations. And it is precisely these regulations that would have to be changed.

The nationalization of ČEZ does not solve the main problem. In addition, the government would lose the golden eggs in the form of dividends. Thanks to its stake in this company, the state already has a practical influence on all of the company's strategic decisions.

Delisting ČEZ from the stock exchange would primarily harm the Czech capital markets, as the Prague Stock Exchange would lose its most traded stock. Likewise, the purchase and construction of new nuclear power plant units will cost enormous sums of money. And where will the money come from when the state coffers are already empty?

Another important point in the program is the rejection of ETS-2 quotas and the revision of the entire Green Deal. Again, this sounds like a very ambitious plan, but it is a Europe-wide problem, not a purely national one. It is questionable whether the Czech government will find enough allies at the European level to change this. Promising to reject the quotas without a realistic chance of stopping them is, to a certain extent, an excuse. We could go through the entire government statement point by point. However, actual politics always plays out between what the government wants and what it can afford.

The anti-Fial aspect of the program

The draft program statement of the new Czech government contains a number of repeals of measures introduced by the Fial government. The new cabinet wants to limit the increase in taxes for the self-employed and reintroduce the tax allowance for spouses or kindergarten fees. All these measures will cost something, but we are still only talking about a few billion to a few dozen billion Czech korunas, so the chances of them being implemented are relatively high. (One billion Czech korunas is equivalent to approximately 41 million euros – editor's note).

Here, too, we may ask ourselves whether, for example, the reintroduction of kindergarten fees is unnecessary and merely a childish expression of anti-federalism. The fact is that fewer and fewer children are being born, so there is no such large surplus of capacity in kindergartens. The shortage of places in state kindergartens mainly affects residents of large cities, who are not among the strongholds of the newly formed government.

The outgoing government had to muster a lot of courage to abolish kindergarten fees as an unpopular measure. The only concrete measure in the area of tax collection is said to be the reintroduction of EET cash registers, which had been abolished by the Fiala government.

A major step backward in the area of pension reform is the reintroduction of the retirement age of 65. It is not at all clear how the government intends to counter the unfavorable demographic trend while maintaining a balanced budget.

Instead of reforms, the government is offering only to pay the bills—a gesture that appears decisive but does not represent a real solution.

NATO, the EU, and Israel remain unaffected

If we free ourselves from a certain political idealism, we realize that Andrej Babiš is incredibly pragmatic in his approach. The old new prime minister is taking advantage of the fact that, at 71, he is now the most experienced politician.

He was finance minister in one government, led another, and then spent four years in opposition. He has survived all the attacks from journalists and court cases. Only Filip Turek perhaps has thicker skin than Babiš.

The formation of a government is a delicate moment in constitutional terms, and in this context, the Czech president has relatively great power. Although he is media-savvy, he has very little political experience.

So far, he has only negotiated with Prime Minister Fiala, with whom he shares the same values. This is not the case with Babiš. The leader of the ANO movement is not an outspoken enemy, but it can be assumed that former young communist cadres still have something in common, even after the time that has passed since the Velvet Revolution.

Babiš demonstrated his willingness by sending the president his programmatic statement via a data box. In doing so, he ensured that the statement would be more or less known before it was officially published. On Monday, Babiš also clarified that this was merely a proposal for the president. The final version could look different. In other words, he has launched a trial balloon.

The program contains nothing that could alarm even the most vigilant Atlanticist: NATO, the EU, and Israel remain untouched. Rejecting such a government would mean President Pavel denying himself. As long as the main line of government policy is in line with the country's constitutional and international obligations, personnel reservations are secondary.

After all, even President Zeman did not dare to refuse to appoint Jan Lipavský as head of the Foreign Ministry, even though their views diverged. Babiš is thus wisely preparing the ground for President Pavel to accept all his proposals for ministerial posts.