Of course, it allows us to gain some perspective. The best thing for an investor is to make his own forecast each year and then compare it with reality at the end of the year. For those who are lazy or don't have the time to do these forecasts, this review will allow you to compare individual financial gurus and influencers.
Based on this, the investor can find the one who is the best in their predictions. So how did 2025 turn out?
The S&P 500 as a measure of success
Since time immemorial, the basic measure of success has been a comparison with the S&P 500 index. This index posted an annualised performance of 16.65 per cent in 2025. Historical charts show that if we surpass the 15 percent mark in a given year, it's a good year for investors.
However, it is important to point out that we have had our third good year in a row. This is certainly good news for all investors, but it forces us to exercise some restraint. In the stock market - as in life - there are not only good years. Each successive good year increases the likelihood that the next one will not be so good.
For active investors who practice stock picking or selecting individual stocks instead of indexes, an annual performance of 16.65 percent represents an important bar. Only if they surpass it does this kind of investing make sense.
This is a very strict rule of thumb for all active investment managers, as passive investing has now become widespread, especially among small and medium-sized investors. This approach recommends regular investment in this particular index.
If you have an investment horizon of five or ten years, you can hardly go wrong. On the other hand, expecting your investment to appreciate by 16 per cent every year would be naive. In addition, growth this year has been boosted by the weak dollar, so investors in euros have to subtract the appreciation of the exchange rate.
Prague and Seoul at the top
This year, however, investors could have done much better than to buy an ETF on the S&P 500 index. As for the indices, the absolute star was South Korea's KOSPI, which added more than 75 percent. The South Korean index just confirmed that technology was key in 2025.
Samsung was the star performer, adding 124 percent for the year.
However, Slovak investors did not have to go far to beat the US's prestigious S&P 500 index. The Prague Stock Exchange has risen 52.58 percent this year. When dividends paid out are added to that, the PX index has appreciated 61.34 percent in a year.
The Prague Stock Exchange was mainly driven by the banking sector and the insurance company VIG. These stocks have been undervalued for a long time, and so 2025 represented a return to normal values. The performance of the Prague Stock Exchange is thus very good in the context that it contains a large number of defensive titles.
Gold in the shadow of silver
The year 2025 had one notable peculiarity: both the US stock market and gold did well. However, gold did not just do well, but extremely well. In fact, the price of gold was up 62 percent for the year.
That is an extraordinary performance for gold. And that is what is striking. Investors are buying gold to hedge against a falling US stock market and a weak dollar, so it's not logical for the price of gold to rise at the same time as the price of US technology titles, which are considered risky investments.
The main reasons why the price of gold rose were the weak dollar and the huge purchases by central banks. The latter, unlike retail investors, do not look too much at the price of gold when buying. They are mainly looking for a way to diversify their reserves.
US bonds have been losing their appeal for some time, so gold seems a logical choice. On the other hand, this information cannot be overstated. The dollar remains the number one reserve currency.
However, gold will not win in 2025. It has been overtaken by silver. The silver price offered investors a fabulous appreciation of 137 percent. At the end of the year, we saw extreme volatility as all sorts of speculators pounced on silver.
It will be very interesting to see if the volatility in silver remains as high. The price of silver has risen for two reasons. The first reason is that silver, along with copper, has been classified as a strategic commodity by the Trump administration.
Silver is used extensively in the manufacture of solar panels and, as a result, is also found in military equipment. The second reason was that silver was just catching up with gold. For the last ten years there has been talk that it is undervalued.
And so the current increase is just a confirmation of what has been said for a long time. That's why a silver price of around $60 an ounce is not surprising, and it may stay at that level for a long time.
A disappointment for cryptocurrencies and bonds
Cryptocurrency and bond holders will not remember 2025 in a good way. The price of bitcoin is down six percent year-over-year. During 2025, the most famous cryptocurrency did increase its all-time high several times, but vertical growth that would have surpassed the symbolic values of 150 thousand or 200 thousand dollars did not take place, and even bitcoin did not retain the hope of surpassing new all-time highs in the near future.
Many commentators therefore believe that bitcoin has entered its bear phase under the theory of half-cycles. The good news is that if this theory holds true, this downward cycle will end in September 2026. So next year the situation may be different.
For bondholders, the situation remains uncertain. Despite a general reduction in interest rates around the world, long-term bond yields are rising or stagnating. When yields rise, the price of bonds falls. The price of US bonds has risen slightly by around three per cent since the beginning of the year, but even that is not enough.
The consolation for bondholders is the annual coupon paid, which for US bonds is around four per cent. If you subtract inflation from that amount, you are still in the red, but the yield is so small that it is meaningless for most retail investors.
However, if Donald Trump's wish comes true and the central bank governor appointed by him cuts rates to the minimum, bondholders could finally see better appreciation in 2026.