Generally speaking, in a chess game, the player with the white pieces has a slight but measurable advantage. They start, set the pace, and force their opponent to react. Donald Trump waited for nothing and, surprisingly, began his geopolitical chess game in 2026. Today, Washington is playing with the white pieces in Venezuela.
The American operation that led to the capture of Nicolás Maduro was not just a regime change, but a takeover of the initiative. The first move has already been made, and it is decisive in this game. It is important to remember that Venezuela is not a chessboard, but only a pawn in this game in a multipolar world.
The US intervention in Venezuela came as no surprise. Jacques Baud, now persecuted by the European Union, predicted the whole operation in an interview with his publisher Max Milo Éditions published in early December. The main reason for the intervention was the continued interest in Venezuela, which began during Trump's first term. In this article, he points out that the US propaganda about drug trafficking is more of a signal to start the operation than a real reason.
The real goal of the intervention was to demonstrate the power of the United States and regain control over a strategic area.
The Monroe Doctrine in a new guise
The Trump administration is acting in accordance with an updated version of the Monroe Doctrine, which the president himself, with a certain amount of exaggeration, calls the "Donroe Doctrine." Its logic is simple: states are not judged by their adherence to universal norms, but by whether they are friends or enemies of the United States. It is an unusually harsh doctrine, not because of its content, but because of its openness.
This is where the parallel with Carl Schmitt comes in. The German legal theorist pointed out that the fundamental political distinction is not between legal and illegal, but between friend and foe. He also argued that the concept of supranational, value-neutral communities is ultimately illusory: in times of crisis, sovereign decision-making always reemerges, and with it a sharp division of the world.
Trump's policy does not create this logic, it merely removes its liberal veil. What is surprising is that the US no longer talks about introducing democracy. For now, it seems that it does not matter who takes over from Maduro, as long as they meet US demands. This is not the birth of a new geopolitics, but an acknowledgment of the old one.
Transnational institutions are not losing their significance because Trump has weakened them; they are weakening because they are unable to make decisions in times of tough power confrontations. Trump is therefore not the cause of the collapse of global structures, but its visible consequence.
Oil as a secondary motive
From a classic geopolitical perspective, the case of Venezuela is about the search for a new sphere of influence. Immediately after the capture of the Venezuelan president, speculation spread that America was after oil, as was the case with Iraq. The main argument was Venezuela's huge oil reserves.
However, this reason is secondary and does not reflect several fundamental changes. Until 2015, the US was prohibited from exporting its oil. American security strategy has long been based on the need to extract oil everywhere in the world and save American reserves for later. However, this changed with the advent of the shale revolution.
Since 2022, the US has been the largest exporter of LNG and a key exporter of oil. From this perspective, the primary goal is not to extract as much oil as possible in Venezuela, as this would put further negative pressure on oil prices. Of course, oil and its extraction are always attractive, but in the case of Venezuela, it will take massive investment and several years for oil production to return to the level it was at when Hugo Chávez expelled American companies.
This process will take years and has one important unknown: what the Venezuelan regime will actually be like in the coming years. No one knows. Operating with such a long-term perspective does not make sense in today's world.
In the case of Venezuela, it is about gaining a sphere of influence. It is not just about oil, but about all mineral resources and a more advantageous geopolitical position on the chessboard. Trump and his administration have made it clear to the whole world that other countries and territories are in their sights: from Cuba to Greenland, Colombia, Mexico, and Canada.
Everything can now be important for American security and strategic interests. Moreover, the US has changed its modus operandi. It will no longer be primarily about military interventions, which cost American taxpayers huge amounts of money, but about targeted operations focused on individuals. The American security services have thus been inspired by their Israeli counterparts, for whom this modus operandi is commonplace.
China as the main perimeter
However, it would be a mistake to focus solely on this dimension. On the chessboard, it is not enough to have a positional advantage; you also have to defeat your opponent. And in the case of the US, it is clear that the main enemy is China. China will be the country most affected by the Venezuelan operation. China was a major buyer of Venezuelan oil. Now it will have to find another supplier.
Iran is the obvious choice. But what a coincidence that Trump has also been talking about Iran recently. If there were to be a regime change in Iran as well, the situation would become catastrophic for China. The country would have to rely on Russia. But here too, we have recently seen systematic attacks by Ukraine, seemingly illogical attacks on Russian refineries.
These attacks cannot deprive Russia of its reserves and thus stop its military operations, but they do complicate its sales. And it is common knowledge that Ukrainian operations on Russian territory cannot be carried out without the support of American security services. The loss of Russian oil would mean a practical knockout for China.
Venezuela is therefore not a target in itself, but one of the moves in a broader game in which the United States is testing the limits of its ability to redefine spheres of influence. The real opponent is not in Caracas or Havana, but in Beijing, and the next move is now on its side.