Brussels no longer hides the fact that the expansion of the European Union is becoming a geopolitical tool. According to information from the daily Politico, a five-point plan has been drawn up to secure Ukraine's partial membership in the Union as early as 2027—that is, even before all reforms have been completed. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán called this an "open declaration of war on Hungary."
The statement came less than two months before the Hungarian parliamentary elections. Orbán wrote on social media that the Brussels elite, together with Kiev, had decided to fast-track Ukraine's accession while also seeking to remove the current Hungarian government.
"They are ignoring the decision of the Hungarian people and are determined to remove the Hungarian government by any means necessary. They want the Tisza party to come to power because then there would be no veto, resistance, or delay in their conflict," Orbán said.
According to him, Fidesz is "the only force standing between Hungary and Brussels' domination" and a guarantee of Hungarian sovereignty. He called on voters to stop this plan in the April elections.
Five steps to 2027
The European Commission is already provisionally assessing Kiev's application for membership and providing it with technical guidance in negotiations on so-called clusters—thematic areas that a candidate country must fulfill. The EU has so far provided details on three of the six clusters and is set to present the others at a meeting of European affairs ministers. At the same time, EU representatives emphasize that there will be "no shortcuts" in the reforms.
A concept known as "reverse enlargement" is being discussed. According to this concept, Ukraine would gain a seat at the EU negotiating table even before fully meeting the criteria and would acquire rights and obligations gradually. This is a modification of the standard enlargement process, which until now has required the fulfillment of conditions prior to accession.
Some member states—especially Germany—are cautious about this idea and point to the risk of creating multiple levels of membership.
Orbán as an obstacle
The third step assumes that Brussels will wait for the results of the Hungarian elections. EU enlargement requires the unanimous consent of all 27 member states. Orbán has long been opposed to Ukraine's accession and has repeatedly emphasized his veto.
European leaders are therefore watching the outcome of the Hungarian elections on April 12, when Fidesz will face Péter Magyar's opposition party, Tisz. According to polls, the opposition has been in the lead since the end of 2024.
According to Politico, diplomats do not rule out that a possible change of government could soften Budapest's stance on Ukraine's membership.
The Trump card and Article 7
If Orbán wins the election, the plan calls for a fourth step, which is to leverage the influence of US President Donald Trump, who is Orbán's ally. Since Ukraine's accession to the EU by 2027 is to be part of a broader peace framework, Washington could put pressure on Budapest.
Finally, there is a fifth step – the extreme solution in the form of Article 7 of the EU Treaty. This allows a member state's voting rights to be suspended. In other words, if we don't agree, we'll take away your vote. So far, this has been discussed cautiously.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky argues for security guarantees and the need to firmly anchor Ukraine in the West. Brussels talks about a "political signal" and support for the country at war.
(pir)