Nuremberg. DATEV, a cooperative association of German tax advisers, regularly publishes economic trends in Germany based on data collected by tax advisers in the course of their work. The DATEV SME Index is a set of key indicators tracking the development of companies across several areas. Fundamental economic trends are reflected in both company turnover and wage developments. Wages are a significant cost factor, particularly in the SME sector, which accounts for most companies in Germany, but they also serve as an indicator of economic performance.
According to a press release from the cooperative, the DATEV SME Index turnover stood at 97.2 points in January, adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects. This represents a 1.5 per cent increase compared with the previous month. Compared with the same month last year, there was a slight decline of 0.7 per cent, likewise adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects. The start to the year is therefore subdued. The significance of the index lies not in absolute figures, but in reflecting trends and developments. It shows that turnover in the hospitality sector is stagnating, while manufacturing in particular is recording a significant decline of 4.8 per cent compared with the previous year. There are no signs of economic recovery.
“Small and medium-sized businesses are having a slow start to the year: turnover continues to decline and employment is also continuing to fall,” says Robert Mayr, CEO of DATEV. Contrary to some optimistic statements, there are currently no reliable signs of an economic recovery, Mayr continues. The other key indicators confirm the trend.
Companies' wage costs are rising
The wage index rose to 121.4 points in January, adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects. This represents an increase of 0.6 per cent compared with the previous month. According to DATEV, wages and salaries are 3.9 per cent higher than a year earlier, adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects.
The increases are particularly noticeable in labour-intensive sectors such as hospitality, retail and other services. This is mainly due to the rise in the minimum wage. In Germany, there is a statutory minimum wage, which has been set at €13.90 gross per hour since 1 January 2026. The rate applies to all employees over the age of 18. A further increase to €14.60 has already been decided for 1 January 2027. Wage costs in the low-wage sector, and thus primarily in the service sector, will therefore continue to rise. Wage growth remains steady, meaning that the increases of recent months are set to persist.
Employment figures in companies are stagnating
In addition, DATEV compiles an employment index tracking the development in the number of people employed in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). With 3.2 million businesses – or 99.3 per cent – SMEs account for the vast majority of companies in Germany. Fifty-three per cent of the 38.3 million people in employment in Germany work in small and medium-sized enterprises.
The employment index stood at 100.9 points in January this year, adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects. There was virtually no change compared with the previous month. Year on year, there was a slight decline of 0.8 per cent, likewise adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects. Overall, employment is therefore close to the previous year’s level.
Here, too, there is no sign of improvement. More than three million people are currently registered as unemployed in Germany. Medium-sized and large companies are announcing further job cuts. The tax advisers’ cooperative, which primarily offers IT solutions for tax advisers and their clients, thus echoes the view of numerous trade associations that see the German economy in a long-term structural crisis.