German carmakers may not survive in current form beyond 2030

German economist Moritz Schularick of the Kiel Institute has warned that car manufacturers such as Volkswagen, BMW and Mercedes-Benz may not exist in their current form by the end of the decade.

He is not predicting the disappearance of the brands, but rather far-reaching restructuring, mergers or the entry of powerful investors, similar to what occurred at Volvo after its takeover by the Chinese group Geely.

In his view, the shift is not merely from petrol to electric power. Electromobility, software and autonomous technologies are transforming the entire production process and business model. Germany also faces high energy prices and intense competition from China and the United States. Since 2019, the sector has lost around 120,000 jobs, chiefly among suppliers.

Industry representatives have described the forecast as exaggerated, arguing that companies are primarily constrained by domestic policy. Yet current developments point to mounting pressure – Porsche’s sharp decline in profits and Volkswagen’s weaker results indicate that the traditional model is under strain.

(mja)