CIA: Revolutionary Guards would replace Khamenei

On the eve of Saturday’s attacks by the US and Israel, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) assessed that even if Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei were killed in the operation, he would probably be replaced by hardline figures from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The assessments, compiled over the past two weeks, examined what might follow a US intervention in Iran and to what extent military action could bring about regime change in the Islamic republic – an outcome widely seen in Washington as a strategic objective.

The intelligence reports did not reach any firm conclusion, two CIA sources told Reuters on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters.

President Donald Trump has hinted for weeks at an interest in regime change, but has not set out who Washington believes could lead the country.

In a video address on Saturday morning, Trump described Tehran as a ‘terrorist regime’ and encouraged the Iranian people to take over the government, saying US military strikes would pave the way for an uprising.

However, some analysts warned that many Iranians might rally in the face of an external threat and, paradoxically, reinforce the theocratic government.

The US and Israeli operation followed weeks of debate within the US administration over whether to intervene after deadly protests erupted in December and flared again at the end of January.

US officials have also sought in recent weeks to reach a nuclear agreement with Tehran in an effort to avert military action.

At a briefing last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio informed senior members of Congress known as the Gang of Eight that the operation was likely to proceed, although Trump could still change course, particularly if nuclear talks succeeded. Those talks in Geneva ended without an agreement.

Rubio said on Friday evening that action against Iran would probably begin ‘in the next few hours’, but added that Trump could still reconsider, according to two sources familiar with the discussions.

(reuters, sab)