US doubts Iranian regime will fall after Khamenei’s death

After the killing of Iran's supreme leader Ali Khamenei, there is cautious skepticism in Washington. Although President Donald Trump has called on Iranians to "take back their country," according to several US officials, regime change in Tehran is unlikely in the foreseeable future.

CIA assessments suggest that Khamenei could be replaced by another hardliner from the ranks of the Revolutionary Guards or the conservative clergy.

A key factor would be possible defections from the elite IRGC units, but nothing of the sort happened during the January protests.

Discussions in US intelligence circles are also focusing on whether a change at the head of the regime would lead to a change in Iran's stance on nuclear negotiations. There is no consensus yet.

Statements from the White House itself suggest that Washington is counting on the regime continuing rather than its immediate collapse.

(reuters, pir)