A wealth of intelligence information provides ‘consistent analysis that the regime is not at risk’ of collapse and ‘retains control over the Iranian public’, said one of three intelligence sources who wished to remain anonymous.
Given the growing political pressure over soaring oil prices, President Donald Trump has indicated that he will ‘soon’ end the largest US military operation since 2003. Finding an acceptable end to the war, however, could be difficult if Iran’s hardline leaders remain firmly entrenched in their positions.
Intelligence reports underscore the cohesion of Iran’s clerical leadership despite the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on 28 February, the first day of US and Israeli strikes.
Israeli officials have also acknowledged in private discussions that there is no certainty the war will lead to the fall of the theocratic government, a senior Israeli official told Reuters.
Sources also emphasised that the situation is unstable and that the dynamics in Iran could still change.
The DNI and CIA declined to comment on the matter to Reuters, and the White House did not respond to a request for comment.
Change of target
Since the start of the military intervention, the US and Israel have attacked a wide range of Iranian targets, including air defences, nuclear facilities and members of the top leadership.
The Trump administration has cited various reasons for the war. When announcing the start of the US operation, Trump called on Iranians to ‘take over their government’, but the US president’s top advisers have since denied that the goal was to overthrow the Iranian leadership.
In addition to Ali Khamenei, dozens of senior officials and some of the top commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary force that controls much of the country and the economy, were killed in the attacks.
Yet reports from US intelligence agencies suggest that the Revolutionary Guards and the interim leaders who took power after Khamenei’s death maintain control over the country.
The Assembly of Experts, a group of 88 senior Shiite clerics, declared Khamenei’s son Mojtaba the new Supreme Leader earlier this week.
Israel has no intention of allowing any ‘remnants of the former government’ in Iran to remain untouched, said a fourth source familiar with the matter. Still, it is unclear how the current US–Israeli military campaign would topple the government.
The source noted that this would likely require a ground offensive that would allow people in Iran to protest safely in the streets. The Trump administration has not ruled out sending US troops to Iran.
Kurds lack firepower
Reuters reported last week that Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighbouring Iraq consulted with the US on whether and how to attack Iranian security forces in the western part of the country.
Such an incursion could put pressure on Iranian security forces in the region, enabling Iranians to rise up against the government.
Abdullah Mohtadi, chairman of the Komala Party for Iranian Kurdistan, which is part of a six-party coalition of Iranian Kurdish parties, said this week that Kurdish parties are very well organised in Iran and that ‘tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms’ against the government if they receive US support.
Mohtadi said he had received reports from Iranian Kurdistan that Revolutionary Guard units and other security forces had abandoned their bases and barracks out of fear of strikes by the US and Israel. ‘We are witnessing tangible signs of weakness [in the regime] in Kurdish areas,’ he said.
Yet according to two sources familiar with these assessments, recent US intelligence reports cast doubt on the ability of Iranian Kurdish groups to wage a fight against Iranian security forces. In particular, they suggest that these groups lack firepower and sufficient numbers of fighters.
In recent days, Iranian Kurdish groups have asked senior officials in Washington and US lawmakers to provide them with weapons and armoured vehicles, said another person familiar with the matter.
But Trump said a few days ago that he had ruled out the entry of Iranian Kurdish groups into Iran.
(Reuters, im)