Lebanon Derails the Process
The immediate trigger was renewed fighting in southern Lebanon. Israel said it struck Hezbollah targets overnight, while the terrorist group reported intense fighting with Israeli forces. Lebanon’s state news agency said at least 16 people were killed in Israeli airstrikes. Israel said four of its soldiers had also been killed.
That fighting is significant because, despite Israel not being a party to the negotiations, the US-Iran accord was supposed to halt military operations “on all fronts, including in Lebanon”. It also claimed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping and brought Washington and Tehran back to talks over Iran’s nuclear program, though without firm commitments from Tehran.
Israel and Hezbollah are not parties to the US-Iran agreement, but their actions now threaten to determine whether it survives.
A Fragile Accord
The planned Switzerland meeting was meant to turn what is in essence a mere political memorandum into a working process towards a long-term agreement. The agreement signed this week was meant to reduce pressure on energy markets after months of disruption.
Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency said before the cancellation that negotiators wanted to “see evidence that the US was implementing the interim agreement”. There was no confirmation that Iran’s delegation would travel. The Guardian reported that the cancellation came so abruptly that Vance’s staff and journalists had already gathered at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, while advance teams were already in Switzerland.
The delay does not formally end the process. Switzerland has not announced a new date, but its statement leaves the door open. The White House has also said it wants technical talks to begin as soon as possible.
What Comes Next?
The problem is that the deal now depends on the actions of parties that are not part of it: neither Israel nor Hezbollah has made any commitments under the terms of the Memorandum of Understanding. Washington can negotiate with Tehran, but even Donald Trump cannot easily force Israel to withdraw from southern Lebanon. Tehran can approve direct talks, but it cannot guarantee – nor has it ever made any effort to ensure – that Hezbollah will stay quiet if Israeli troops remain in place.
The next few days will therefore decide whether Friday’s collapse becomes a short delay or the first crack in the accord. The agreement was designed to move the region from war to negotiation. Instead, overnight developments in Lebanon have shown that in the Middle East, even a signed deal can be a hostage to events.
