Tensions along Ukraine's northern border are rising. As Russia faces mounting logistical challenges on the eastern front and Ukrainian drone strikes continue to hit energy infrastructure deep inside Russian territory, Belarus has become increasingly important to Moscow's military planning.
According to the Wall Street Journal, the Kremlin launched an intensive campaign earlier this year to persuade Alexander Lukashenko's government to play a larger role in the conflict. Western officials cited by the newspaper say Moscow is seeking either to use Belarusian territory for operations against western Ukraine or to step up hybrid activities aimed at testing NATO's eastern flank.
The reported pressure has prompted diplomatic activity behind the scenes. Lukashenko said he recently held a 90-minute phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron, who warned him against becoming more deeply involved in the war.
According to Lukashenko, Macron said France had intelligence suggesting Moscow was considering opening a new front. Macron's office confirmed the conversation, saying the French president warned of "the grave consequences Belarus would face if it allowed itself to be drawn further into Russian aggression".
Kremlin Rejects Reports of Pressure
European intelligence sources and former Russian intelligence officials quoted by the Wall Street Journal say negotiations between Minsk and Moscow have become increasingly tense. According to those sources, Russia has threatened to reduce financial support on which Belarus remains heavily dependent.
The Kremlin has denied those reports.
Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed claims of economic pressure as fiction. "Belarus is our closest ally. The Russian armed forces are conducting operations; Belarus is not participating in them. Russia will continue to fulfill its obligations, provide economic assistance and protect Belarus from military threats, including those from Kyiv", Peskov said.
Belarusian officials have instead accused NATO of escalating tensions.
In a speech to military academy graduates, Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin argued that NATO's military buildup in Poland and the Baltic states demonstrates Western efforts to expand the conflict.
Western governments reject that claim, saying the alliance's deployments are defensive and are a response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the presence of Russian troops and tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus.
Kyiv Warns of Possible Strikes
Ukraine says Belarusian territory is already being used to support Russian military operations.
According to Kyiv, Russia operates ground stations in Belarus that help guide drones used in attacks on western Ukrainian regions, including Rivne, Zhytomyr and Volyn. President Volodymyr Zelensky has warned that Ukraine could strike such facilities if they continue to support Russian attacks.
Lukashenko sought to ease tensions by saying he had conveyed Ukraine's concerns during a previously undisclosed meeting with a Ukrainian delegation in Minsk. However, Zelensky later reiterated publicly that any military infrastructure used to support Russian operations could become a legitimate target.
He also suggested that some facilities had already ceased operating, although those claims have not been independently verified.
Belarus Remains Economically Tied to Russia
Analysts say Lukashenko has little incentive to enter the war directly.
Over the past year, Minsk has sought to improve contacts with Washington. US officials have visited Belarus several times, and Washington temporarily eased sanctions on Belarusian potash exports as part of efforts that coincided with the release of hundreds of political prisoners.
According to Alexander Pirozhnikov, founder of the East European Strategic Forum, direct participation in the war would seriously undermine Belarus's attempts to improve relations with Western countries.
However much Minsk might want to break free, the reality of the oil market keeps it firmly in Russia’s grip. Successful Ukrainian strikes have crippled Russian oil refineries, triggering an acute fuel shortage in Russia.
At the same time, Belarus remains closely integrated with Russia's economy. As Ukrainian strikes have disrupted Russian refining capacity, Belarusian refineries have become increasingly important in supplying fuel to Russia.
According to Reuters, rail shipments of gasoline from Belarus to Russia have increased nearly thirteenfold compared with a year earlier, while diesel shipments have roughly tripled.
Growing Questions About the War's Direction
Some commentators argue that geopolitical tensions surrounding Belarus could continue to increase following the de-escalation of the conflict involving Iran. The American Conservative argued this week that some European governments may now seek to increase pressure on Russia by stepping up support for Ukraine.
Whether Belarus becomes more directly involved in the conflict, however, will likely depend on the calculations made in both Minsk and Moscow in the coming months.
(max)