A Syrian aircraft reportedly entered Iraqi airspace on Sunday, prompting pro-Iranian militias to open fire. Initial reports described it as a Syrian Army reconnaissance drone, while Iraqi media later claimed that it was a helicopter.
The Sunni-led government in Damascus subsequently warned Baghdad that the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) were operating in the border region beyond the control of the central government and would face retaliation in the event of further cross-border fire, Al Arabiya reported, citing an anonymous Iraqi government source.
Although the confrontation might appear to have been an isolated incident, Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa ordered reinforcements to the garrisons at Al Mayadin and Abu Kamal on the Euphrates. Abu Kamal lies only a few kilometers from the border first delineated by Britain and France under their postwar mandates and finalized in 1932.
The Militias Baghdad Cannot Control
Just a week earlier, the PMF had been targeted in US-Saudi strikes that killed at least 20 fighters from groups formally integrated into the Iraqi armed forces. The PMF denounced the attacks as a “dangerous escalation, a violation of Iraq’s sovereignty, and an attack on its official security institutions”.
According to US Central Command (CENTCOM), the operation was retaliation for attacks by Tehran and allied militias on Saudi energy infrastructure and US bases in the region. Soon afterwards, the Revolutionary Guards, having received the remains of five Iranians, fired on Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan.
Despite this brief escalation, which Iraq attributes to pro-Iranian militias, relations between Damascus and Baghdad remain cordial. The two governments are planning pipelines that would carry oil from fields in southern Iraq operated by the state-owned Basra Oil Company through Syria to the Mediterranean for export.
Turkey’s Ascendancy
Following the overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024, Syria’s new armed forces were built largely around the factions that had brought Ahmed al-Sharaa’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to power. As early as March, Syrian troops intercepted drones launched from Iraqi territory against the US base at Qasrak.
According to Syrian and foreign observers, Turkey played a decisive role in HTS’s victory, allegedly financing and training Sunni extremists in the northwestern province of Idlib. It was from there that they began their victorious advance toward Damascus in late November 2024. Ankara’s support reflects its semi-official doctrine of Neo-Ottomanism, which regards the Middle East and surrounding regions as a Turkish sphere of influence.
In late July, Syrian authorities also intercepted weapons originating in Iraq and destined for Hezbollah’s Shiite militants in southern Lebanon. The discovery prompted Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi to establish a joint investigative committee with Syria.
On Monday, al-Sharaa hosted Nechirvan Barzani, president of Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan Region, for talks focused primarily on economic cooperation.
Iran’s Iraqi Hinterland
Iraq is also something of a backyard for Iran, as was recently demonstrated by the funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. His funeral procession passed through the major Shiite holy cities of Najaf and Karbala, both of which are in Iraq.
Although al-Zaidi recently launched a wide-ranging investigation into corruption involving certain PMF units, it remains unclear whether it will produce any results. The pro-Iranian Shiite militias are an important part of Tehran’s Axis of Resistance, a loose coalition of militant and terrorist organizations fighting Israel.
These self-proclaimed popular militias have repeatedly attacked Saudi territory, with Riyadh attributing the strikes to the Islamic Republic. Saudi Arabia, however, had already become involved in military operations against Tehran in May.
Shiite Muslims – from the Arabic shi’at Ali, meaning those who support Ali – do not live only in Iran. Neighboring Azerbaijan also has a Shiite majority, as does Iraq, where most Shiites live in the southern half of the country. By 2015, they accounted for at least 58% of its population.
Given the sectarian divisions that cut across national borders, the danger that a Middle Eastern war could escalate into a religious conflict must not be ignored. Conflicts of this kind are typically accompanied by rhetoric portraying the struggle as a battle between good and evil, leaving little room for mercy toward enemies or the protection of prisoners.