Canada Seeks a New Alliance with the European Union

Canada wants closer access to European markets, defense programs and strategic industries. Brussels is weighing how far the partnership could go as the EU considers an intermediate status for Ukraine.

Working on a pact to bring them closer: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly floated the idea of making Canada the 51st state of the United States. Now, ironically, the Canadian-American trade war could help turn America’s northern neighbor into something resembling the European Union’s 28th member state, at least economically.

Canada and the EU are working on a new kind of relationship that does not yet even have a name. What is clear, however, is that it would go further than the EU’s existing arrangements with Norway, Switzerland or the United Kingdom. Ottawa would gain closer access to European markets, defense programs and strategic industries.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney ruled out full membership on Sunday but announced talks on a new alliance with Brussels. The Wall Street Journal reported shortly afterward that the two sides were even considering the status of an associate member. The European Commission has yet to comment officially on such a status. But EU Ambassador to Canada Geneviève Tuts confirmed that the idea amounts to more than a Canadian trial balloon, saying that work was underway on an unprecedented form of partnership.

How quickly could it happen? Carney will address the European Parliament in Strasbourg this week and attend European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s State of the Union address. Brussels then plans to consult the 27 member states, while Ottawa holds talks with Canada’s provinces. No finalized framework exists yet, but an initial package could be presented at the EU-Canada summit on 29 and 30 October.

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Canada Offers the EU More than a New Market

The foundations for closer ties are already in place. Canada is already closely integrated into the EU economy through the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), participates in the Horizon Europe research program and has been negotiating a digital trade agreement since March. In February, it also became the first non-European country to join the EU’s Security Action for Europe (SAFE) financing instrument for joint defense projects.

Working groups are now examining joint supply chains for energy, defense, artificial intelligence and critical raw materials. The discussions also covers data centers, undersea cables and satellite networks intended to make Europe and Canada less dependent on US technology companies. Easier entry and employment rules for Canadian specialists in certain sectors are also under consideration.

Canada would also bring considerable economic weight. Trade in goods and services reached almost €131bn ($152bn) in 2025, up more than 80% since 2016. The EU exported more than €78bn ($90bn) in goods and services to Canada and imported almost €53bn ($61bn) in return.

Canada is only the EU’s 12th-largest trading partner in goods and cannot replace the US market. But it offers Europe energy, minerals and capital from a wealthy, stable democracy. For a union seeking to reduce its dependence on the United States, China and Russia, that relationship could prove more valuable than current trade volumes suggest.

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A Second Tier Alongside Full Membership

Canada’s initiative comes as the EU considers a similar idea for Ukraine. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz proposed in May that associate membership could serve as an intermediate step toward full accession. Ukrainian representatives could attend summits and ministerial meetings under such an arrangement, but would have no vote. Merz also floated the possibility of a commissioner and members of the European Parliament without voting rights, as well as gradual access to the EU budget.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky rejected the proposal. He argued that it would be unfair to give Ukraine a seat in EU institutions without giving it a voice. Diplomats in Brussels were also cautious because no such status exists under the European treaties. Others were more receptive, provided the intermediate stage accelerated accession rather than replacing it.

Canada and Ukraine would approach this second tier from opposite directions. Ottawa is seeking a permanent relationship without full membership, while Kyiv might accept an interim arrangement only as a shortcut to accession. If both gained access to European markets, programs and security structures without full voting rights, the EU would, for the first time, have a formalized outer tier.