On 27 September, the Rassemblement National (RN) could break through one of its last institutional glass ceilings. For the first time in its history, Marine Le Pen’s party hopes to form a caucus in the Senate. That ambition has become a realistic possibility following the municipal elections in March, which significantly strengthened the party’s local presence.
The link between the two elections is straightforward. Unlike members of the National Assembly, senators are not elected directly by voters. They are chosen by an electoral college, around 95% of whose members are municipal representatives. For the September 2026 elections, some 172,600 electors will participate in the vote, including nearly 89,000 delegates from municipal councils.
In other words, municipal elections are crucial to Senate elections. For years, this was precisely what prevented the RN from translating its national electoral strength into representation in the upper house. The party could win millions of votes in presidential, legislative or European elections without having a sufficiently dense network of mayors and municipal councilors to make an impact in Senate elections.
From Local Wins to the Senate
The March municipal elections changed the game. The RN now claims some 70 municipalities and 3,000 city council members. An AFP tally based on figures from the Ministry of the Interior, meanwhile, counted 55 municipalities with more than 3,500 residents and 3,006 city council members for the party and its allies from the Union of the Right for the Republic (UDR).
You might be interested
Germany’s Fantastic Four Elections
This represents a spectacular increase from 2014, when the RN – then known as the National Front – secured approximately 1,500 municipal councilors. The party certainly did not win all the major cities it had targeted – Marseille, Toulon and Nîmes, in particular, eluded it. But the real prize lay elsewhere: by securing more mayors and municipal officials, the RN built the local base it had previously lacked.
This foothold does not guarantee a wave of victories in the Senate elections. The balance of power remains heavily in favor of parties traditionally established in local government, particularly Les Républicains (LR) and the Socialists. But for the first time, it gives the RN a genuine starting point.
The current situation illustrates this disconnect between electoral clout and local presence. The RN has become a major electoral force – even, in its own words, “France’s leading party” – but it remains virtually invisible in the Palais du Luxembourg. Its leadership is calling for a “restoration of democratic balance”.
Of the Senate’s 348 seats, only three are currently held by RN senators: Christopher Szczurek in Pas-de-Calais, Joshua Hochart in Nord and Aymeric Durox in Seine-et-Marne. Stéphane Ravier, a senator from Bouches-du-Rhône who was elected under the RN banner, now sits as an independent.
For Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, forming a Senate group would therefore represent more than a numerical gain. It would give the party institutional recognition more in line with its national electoral strength.
A Carefully Thought-Out Strategy
The party aims to reach the threshold of 10 senators – the number required to form a group in the Senate, compared with 15 in the National Assembly. The RN now expects to win between nine and 13 seats, according to estimates provided by a party lawmaker. Its UDR allies could also help push the total past the 10-member mark.
The Provence region serves as a testing ground. Éric Ciotti’s election as mayor of Nice, France’s fifth-largest city, has upended the local political balance, prompting many elected officials from the traditional right to leave Les Républicains (LR) and join the victorious RN-UDR alliance.
The party did not simply wait for the municipal election results. As early as September 2025, it had appointed Ludovic Pajot, a mayor and former member of parliament, as campaign manager for the Senate elections. The stated goal at the time was to double or even triple the number of RN senators, which would bring the party closer to the threshold needed to form a caucus.
The RN also sought to learn from its previous experience in municipal government. It now intends to prioritize candidates with strong local roots who are capable of running a local administration, hoping to avoid the defections and difficulties that plagued some of its early municipal teams.
Another strategy is to use some of its parliamentary figures as driving forces. In departments where the party does not yet have a strong enough presence to naturally win a seat, it is relying on members of the National Assembly who are already well-known locally to lead or bolster the Senate candidate lists.
Finally, the RN makes no secret of the fact that it is looking beyond its own ranks. Christopher Szczurek has acknowledged the existence of contacts with certain LR and centrist senators who, should a caucus be formed, might join Le Pen’s elected officials. The threshold of 10 could thus be reached through a few defections rather than solely through candidates elected on RN lists.
At the Palais du Luxembourg, this possibility is now being taken seriously. The Senate administration is preparing for the potential arrival of a ninth caucus. “We will have to expand the space”, summarized a senior official, noting that the premises are already very cramped with eight caucuses currently in place.
The arrival of the RN would indeed have very concrete consequences: a parliamentary group has its own offices, the financial resources to hire staff and greater parliamentary visibility. It benefits from additional opportunities to speak in debates and the right to request the creation of one investigative committee per session.
A Symbolic Institutional Breakthrough
The issue is therefore as much political as it is practical. An RN group would have permanent institutional standing: the ability to introduce legislation, organize its parliamentary work and exert greater influence over the Senate’s agenda. Even with only 10 members, it would become a force impossible to ignore.
You might be interested
Le Pen Defies Appeal Verdict to Launch 2027 Presidential Campaign
As the presidential race gets underway, gaining a foothold in the Senate would represent another important step for the RN. A strong result would extend the momentum from the municipal elections, offer Marine Le Pen further evidence of the party’s growing acceptance as a mainstream political force and bolster her presidential ambitions. The precedent of 2011 remains notable: the Senate’s shift to the left came just months before François Hollande’s election as president.
The RN wants to be recognized in the Senate as a political force in its own right. After years as an electoral giant without a comparable local presence, it now has – thanks to the municipal elections – the foundations it needs to begin turning its votes into institutional power.
