Disaster for Merz’s CDU – The Left Emerges as Clear Election Winner

State parliaments were elected today in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania and Berlin. Despite heavy losses for the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in both elections, Chancellor Friedrich Merz announced immediately after the first projections that he would remain in office and continue the planned reforms.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, the latest projection puts the Alternative for Germany (AfD) at around 38%, making it the strongest party. The incumbent Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) is at just under 36% and Die Linke at around 6.5%. Three parties are still not certain of entering the Landtag, the state parliament: Alliance 90/The Greens and the CDU are only just above 5%, and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) is narrowly below it or, depending on the projection, on the 5% mark. The Free Democratic Party (FDP) is well below at about 1%.

In Berlin, Die Linke is clearly ahead at around 25%. The CDU is at about 20%, the Greens at around 15%, the AfD at about 14% and the SPD at around 12%. The BSW is at about 5% and therefore remains unsure of entering the Abgeordnetenhaus, Berlin's state parliament. The latest projections put Die Linke at 24.9%–25.5%, the CDU at 20% and the Greens at 15.0%–15.4%.

The figures may continue to change over the course of the evening. In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, whether the CDU, the Greens and the BSW enter parliament, and the resulting coalition arithmetic, depend on a few tenths of a percentage point. In Berlin, the main open question is whether the BSW gets in.

Leif-Erik Holm, lead candidate of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state elections . Photo: Sean Gallup/Getty Images)

No Change of Course for Merz

Chancellor Friedrich Merz spoke to the press at Konrad-Adenauer-Haus, the CDU headquarters in Berlin, immediately after the first projections were announced. Although all of Germany's CDU minister-presidents had gathered there, the chancellor appeared alone and took no questions. He called the CDU's result in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania a “disaster”, and the defeat in Saxony-Anhalt two weeks earlier a “deep turning point” and “our heaviest election defeat in many years”. Merz also acknowledged that federal politics bore some responsibility. The campaigners, he said, had worked under difficult conditions, “also because the tailwind from Berlin failed to materialize”.

He announced no consequences for either of his posts. Instead, Merz reaffirmed his reform agenda. “The reforms must come”, he said. They might initially bring burdens and uncertainty. “I take on this responsibility”, Merz declared. That would require “backbone, steadfastness and patience”, which he would provide “as CDU party chairman and above all as chancellor of our country”.

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Klingbeil Calls for Changes

SPD leader and Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil called for the federal government to change course after the election results. The party must analyze “why there is this great uncertainty in the country”. The government had failed to communicate its reforms in a way that made the changes visible to people, and people had instead perceived “often […] only debates about cuts”. The results called for a “humble” response and for the party to ask: “What can we do differently, what can we do better?”

At the same time, Klingbeil opened parts of the planned pension reform up to discussion. The government must take seriously people's worry that they will not be able to retire without deductions after 45 years of contributions, and must “find solutions”. Klingbeil ruled out stepping down from the SPD leadership. He and SPD co-chair Baerbel Bas had been elected and had “a clear mandate to lead the SPD in this government”. As a result, different emphases now clash within the governing coalition after the elections. How the reforms Merz announced proceed will become clear in the coming weeks as the coalition implements them.

Die Linke Celebrates in Berlin

In Berlin, Die Linke lead candidate Elif Eralp declared her party's victory a mandate for a change of policy. “Love and justice” had triumphed “over hate”. The goal, she said, was an “affordable Berlin” in which everyone can live with dignity. Despite the losses, CDU lead candidate Stefan Evers spoke of a “quite decent result”. He pointed out that he had taken over as lead candidate only during the campaign.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, Minister-President Manuela Schwesig (SPD), the state's head of government, defended her decision to turn the campaign into a duel with the AfD. AfD challenger Leif-Erik Holm accused the SPD of governing the state poorly and of campaigning on fear. After the state elections, SPD General Secretary Tim Kluessendorf warned against forcing reforms on the population. People must be “brought along” and see a positive outlook for the future.

Manuela Schwesig, Minister-President of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. Photo: Stefan Sauer/picture alliance via Getty Images

Coalition Arithmetic

In Berlin, two three-party alliances in particular have a majority on the current projections: either Die Linke, the Greens and the SPD, or the CDU, the Greens and the SPD. The existing black-red coalition of the CDU and the SPD no longer has a majority. The Greens had declared a preference for an alliance with Die Linke and the SPD before the election and reaffirmed it after the result. The other major parties have ruled out a coalition with the AfD. Whether the BSW enters the Abgeordnetenhaus changes the seat distribution but, as things stand, does not fundamentally alter these two majority options.

In Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, by contrast, forming a government hinges directly on the race for the 5% threshold. The AfD is the strongest party but has no foreseeable coalition partner. The SPD, Die Linke, the CDU, the Greens and the FDP had ruled out cooperation with the AfD before the election, and the BSW said it did not want to vote for an AfD minister-president. If the BSW drops out and the CDU and the Greens get in, an alliance of the SPD, Die Linke and the Greens would, among other options, have a majority on current figures. The SPD, the CDU and the Greens could also reach a majority. If, on the other hand, the BSW gets in or one of the parties narrowly misses 5%, the seat distribution shifts considerably.

The final coalition options can therefore be determined only once it is clear which of the CDU, the Greens and the BSW will actually be represented in the Landtag. The existing red-red coalition of the SPD and Die Linke no longer has a majority of its own on any current projection.