For a vote of no confidence, the opposition needs an absolute majority, while for a vote of confidence, a relative majority decides, i.e., the number of deputies present in parliament. Given the government's unpopularity, this means that any member of parliament who clearly supports this government would be committing political suicide.
No wonder most commentators and political scientists today view Bayrou's decision as a de facto resignation. Miracles do happen in politics, but they are rare.
So far, it is difficult to speculate what prompted the French prime minister to take this step. There is talk of disagreements with President Emmanuel Macron. Bayrou may be fulfilling the thankless task of taking on eight years of the failure of so-called Macronism. There is also speculation that the rating agencies are already preparing to downgrade French debt.
At the end of September, Bayrou was supposed to present next year's budget with an austerity package worth €43 billion. His move has apparently only accelerated the sequence of events. For now, we have no choice but to settle for what the prime minister himself says: his decision is related to the French debt crisis.
A predictable crisis: fifty years of deficit
In absolute terms, this is a colossal sum: €3.346 trillion in the first quarter of 2025, which corresponds to 114 percent of gross domestic product. This is a slight increase compared to the end of 2024, when it was 113.2 percent.
The prime minister emphasized that debt is growing rapidly, by more than 5,000 euros per second. However, this problem did not arise overnight and was clearly predictable. French public finances have been in deficit for 50 years. So it is obvious that this problem was bound to arise at some point.
Similarly, anyone with a basic understanding of economics knows that the fight against inflation caused by the response to the Covid crisis, which has led to a rise in interest rates, will cause major problems for all debtors. Nothing new under the sun.
Who is to blame?
However, Bayrou's openness on the question of who is responsible for the debt is a significant innovation. The prime minister stated clearly and unequivocally: “Each of us has debts.” To leave no room for doubt, he emphasized that “it is not governments that cause them.” This message must be taken seriously, because one day other indebted European countries may also spread it. Politicians will try to shift the burden of debt onto the population.
This statement has caused outrage in France. The disappearing middle class certainly did not cause the debt. The political representation of France over the last 50 years is responsible for this. In addition to politicians, we can also add a number of modern economists who, with their more or less sophisticated theories, claim that debt is not a problem.
Yes, debt is not a problem if it is accompanied by healthy economic growth. The key word is “healthy,” meaning growth that is not driven by government debt. In addition, we are slowly but surely falling into a demographic trap in which population trends are depressing economic growth. Unless demographics change fundamentally, debt will be a problem—not just for a year, but for decades.
From teacher to prime minister
The most outrageous thing is that such words come from someone like Bayrou. Before entering politics, he was a high school teacher of French and Latin, i.e., a civil servant. In 1986, at the age of 35, he was elected to parliament and held this office for 19 years, with some interruptions.
He then held various ministerial posts and was also a member of the European Parliament for a short time. From 2020 to 2024, he was High Commissioner for Planning, a role whose exact responsibilities are not entirely clear. On paper, Bayrou was supposed to develop medium- and long-term strategies for France's development.
Given that the country is on the brink of a debt crisis, it is fair to say that these plans did not really work out. If we were to ask artificial intelligence to estimate how much Bayrou's long political career has cost French taxpayers, we would arrive at a rough estimate of around five million euros. This is the amount French taxpayers spent only to learn that they themselves are responsible for the debt. That is a very bitter realization.
For us in Central Europe, there is a lesson to be learned from this: we should be particularly interested in politicians who offer realistic solutions to government debt. Government debt is a problem that cannot be ignored.
