Another problem is the lack of support from the president's coalition. Bayrou, who has been a member of parliament since 1986, is aware that MPs will not vote against the party line without first gaining allies. Political actors outside the president's coalition are unlikely to express confidence in Bayrou.
Theoretically, some parties could leave the chamber to increase the chances of a confidence vote, as Bayrou only needs a majority of the deputies present. However, given that all parties have stated their intention to vote, this possibility is also unlikely.
Why is Bayrou risking a confidence vote?
The question is why the current prime minister has decided to seek a vote of confidence. One explanation is the desire to speed up political events. At the end of September 2025, parliament was due to vote on the 2026 budget, which had little chance of being passed. Its rejection would have automatically led to the fall of the government. With his move, Bayrou is taking the initiative and avoiding passively waiting for the inevitable end.
The relationship between the prime minister and the president has deteriorated significantly in recent months. Bayrou does not want to bear responsibility for the failure of Macron's political project. With this move, he has also made President Macron's position more difficult.
An interesting hypothesis is that Bayrou, as an experienced politician with presidential ambitions, is paving the way for a presidential candidacy with this move. He can present himself as the voice of reason that wants to solve France's problems. Given that the presidential coalition lacks a clear successor to Macron—Gabriel Attal is considered too inexperienced—Bayrou could appeal to voters who reject the National Rally.
Gabriel Attal. Photo: TASR/AP
Possible scenarios after the fall of the government
If the government fails to win the confidence vote on Monday, France will plunge into another political crisis. Macron could appoint a new prime minister, but the problem remains: the new government is unlikely to receive enough support for the crucial vote on the budget.
Macron is not giving up and, following Bayrou's announcement, has begun to win over representatives of social democracy. The appointment of a socialist prime minister could broaden the circle of allied parties, but would raise questions about the reaction of the Republicans, who form an important part of the president's coalition.
Another possibility would be to lean more to the left and try to bring the Greens into the government. The lure of power may be great, but such a government would again lack a parliamentary majority and would lack a clear vision for solving the state deficit. Similarly, a cabinet of non-partisan experts would also be short-lived.
All these scenarios face the same problem: the lack of stable parliamentary support. Macron is only buying time, but the situation requires a more radical solution.
Early elections
One possibility would be to call early parliamentary elections. The legal deadline of one year has already expired, so this option is legally possible. It is most popular among the National Rally led by Marine Le Pen. Although this politician cannot run for office herself, early elections could strengthen her party's position.
However, this option poses several problems. Even if the National Rally were to win more seats, this might not be enough to achieve a majority in parliament. If the party were to achieve a simple majority, this would lead to a “cohabitation” situation, with the president and prime minister coming from different political camps.
Leading the state under this regime is challenging and requires an experienced politician. Jordan Bardella, a potential candidate for the office of prime minister, is only 28 years old and has only gained experience in the European Parliament. Leading the executive branch in times of a looming debt crisis could be politically risky for him.
Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen. Photo: TASR/AP
Alternative media also point out that taking over the government could be a trap for the National Rally. If France were to face financial collapse, the responsibility would fall on this party, which could discredit it for many years to come.
The measures proposed by Bardella, such as ending social benefits for illegal immigrants, restricting their healthcare, or cutting contributions to the European Union budget, could save tens of billions of euros. However, these amounts are not enough to offset the budget deficit.
Impeachment of the president
Another possibility is the impeachment of President Emmanuel Macron, as proposed by Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the radical left-wing party La France Insoumise. He argues that the hierarchical French system needs stability, starting with the head of state. New elections could be a real solution to the crisis. However, this option faces obstacles.
Macron has clearly stated that he will not resign and will try to remain in power for as long as possible. Although it is legally possible for parliament to dismiss the president, this has never happened in French history. Mélenchon's proposal is therefore seen by some as more of an attempt at self-promotion than a real solution.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Photo: TASR/AP
State of emergency under Article 16
The last option, frequently discussed on social media (especially in conspiracy circles), is the application of Article 16 of the French Constitution, which allows the president to assume full power in exceptional situations.
Macron could justify this step by citing a threat to France, such as the parliament's inability to pass the budget. This theory is also supported by the fact that the current head of state has convened a meeting of the Security Council for next week.
This scenario carries risks. Absolute power would only be temporary, and the question remains as to what budget and cuts Macron would implement. Another problem is the potential for street unrest that such a decision could trigger.
France is facing a situation in which none of the proposed solutions offers a real solution to the crisis, but rather leads to its exacerbation. The political drama continues and is far from over. It is an irony of fate that if France finds itself in financial difficulties, it will do so after eight years of rule by a president whom the mainstream media called the “Mozart of the financial world.”
