On Tuesday 7 July, the court upheld a resounding conviction against Le Pen and her party, making the possibility of the former MEP taking part in the 2027 presidential campaign more complex than ever.
The presiding judge emphasized the “seriousness” of the charges, given the duration of the alleged offenses and the sums involved – estimated at several million euros.
The former MEP and leader of the Rassemblement National, formerly known as the Front National, was sentenced to three years’ imprisonment, two of them suspended and one to be served under electronic monitoring. The period of ineligibility was reduced to 45 months, 15 of which are to be served. Le Pen was also fined €100,000 ($114,000).
The verdict hits the party itself just as hard: the National Rally, as a legal entity, was fined €2m ($2.3m) by the court – €1m ($1.1m) of which is suspended – and ordered to forfeit €1m ($1.1m).
This aspect should not be underestimated. Indeed, for many years now, France’s main opposition party has been under significant financial pressure, as the majority of French banks refuse, for ideological reasons, to lend it the funds needed to finance its election campaigns. Being forced to pay several million euros in fines can only seriously complicate its task and compel it to seek funding abroad – a move for which it is bound to be criticized later on.
A Candidate Under Constraint
How will Le Pen conduct her presidential campaign now that the verdict is known? Several uncertainties remain. Marine Le Pen has already served her 15-month period of ineligibility, which began following the judgment of 31 March 2025. By limiting this fixed period, the presiding judge sent a political message: his intention is not to prevent Le Pen from standing as a candidate, and the judgment must not undermine the “principle of freedom to stand for election, an essential condition for the democratic expression of universal suffrage”.
Nevertheless, Le Pen will still have to wear an electronic tag for a year, which jeopardizes her participation in the presidential campaign. Le Pen had been very clear on this point: it was out of the question for her to campaign while wearing an ankle monitor, as this would restrict her movements and force her into numerous negotiations with the judicial authorities. According to some observers, however, it is possible that she may secure a variation of her sentence by this winter, which would allow her to campaign from then onward.
Bardella Waits in the Wings
Given this new situation, it is increasingly likely that Jordan Bardella, the party’s current leader, will be tasked with representing the party during the 2027 presidential campaign. Le Pen is due to speak on this matter during a televised address on the national channel TF1 on the evening of Tuesday 7 July.
On the left, the Rassemblement National’s opponents have been quick to express their delight. “In 2027, we’ll clean house and get rid of them!” exclaimed Manon Aubry, an MEP for La France Insoumise. The far-left party was also the subject of an investigation into the fraudulent employment of parliamentary assistants, but in its case the proceedings were dropped, confirming the suspicion of a two-tier justice.
The President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron, who was on a visit to Syria, declined to comment: “It is healthy for democracy that the President of the Republic does not comment on court rulings”, he told the press.
With Le Pen guilty in the eyes of the courts, many questions remain regarding her involvement in the forthcoming presidential campaign, which are set to be resolved in the coming weeks.
