Ceuta Crisis in Numbers: Claims of Restored Control Do Not Add Up

Four days after tens of thousands of migrants crossed from Morocco into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta, Madrid and Brussels are, predictably enough, presenting the crisis as an emergency successfully contained.

Spain’s interior minister, Fernando Grande-Marlaska, said over the weekend that “almost all” those who entered had returned to Morocco. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen went further, declaring that the “vast majority” had gone back and that “not a single person” had reached mainland Spain or another European Union country.

That the streets of Ceuta were certainly calmer by Sunday cannot be disputed. Shops and restaurants reopened, the main border crossing was, per local reports, functioning again, and the mass movement of people across the frontier had stopped. But the apparent return to normality disguises what might be considered something of a problem: neither Spain, Morocco nor the authorities in Ceuta can agree on how many people entered, how many have returned or how many remain.

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By Monday morning, Ceuta’s president, Juan Jesús Vivas, estimated that between 3,000 and 5,000 migrants were still in the city. That is substantially more than the impression conveyed by repeated official claims that the crisis has been “almost entirely reversed”. It is also not remotely clear, given the confusion around figures and footage from Ceuta itself, that his numbers should be believed.

Figures That Cannot Be Reconciled

Spain’s Interior Ministry initially estimated that approximately 50,000 people crossed into Ceuta on Thursday and Friday. Vivas first placed the number at 60,000, but on Monday raised his estimate to as many as 80,000 – almost equivalent to the enclave’s entire permanent population.

Morocco, meanwhile, claims that only 40,000 people took part.

The return figures are no clearer. Spanish authorities said on Saturday that more than 48,300 people had crossed back into Morocco. By Sunday, police sources were estimating that 73,500 people had left Ceuta – considerably more than the Spanish government’s original estimate of the total number who entered. Who exactly is responsible for the counting is somewhat unclear.

Police acknowledged that the 73,500 figure may include people who entered Ceuta before Thursday’s mass crossing, as well as migrants who crossed the border more than once. They also conceded that the number still refusing to leave was difficult to quantify. On Sunday, the Spanish government’s representative in Ceuta, Miguel Ángel Pérez Triano, was unable to provide an exact return figure, telling reporters that the numbers would be released “when we have them”.

The most that can confidently be said is that tens of thousands returned after discovering that there was no immediate route from Ceuta to mainland Spain and after food, shelter and basic services became scarce. Many were escorted toward the Moroccan border by soldiers or transported there in buses. Others returned voluntarily after spending one or two nights outdoors.

But thousands appear to have stayed behind. Some have gathered near the city’s overcrowded migrant reception center; others have slept in the hills, moved between hiding places or attempted to avoid patrols searching the streets. Reporters continued to encounter migrants hoping to reach mainland Spain, while soldiers and police detained small groups throughout Sunday.

This – to use a charitable word – discrepancy matters because Madrid and Brussels have made the scale of the returns the main evidence that their response succeeded. In reality, those conclusions are based on approximate counts, overlapping categories and estimates produced amid an uncontrolled movement of people across a border that had effectively ceased to function.

Thousands Remain and Reception Centers Are Full

The humanitarian consequences also continued long after the main crossing ended.

By Monday, Ceuta was accommodating 862 unaccompanied migrant children. The city says its ordinary state-assigned capacity is just 29, producing what local officials describe as an occupancy rate of 2,872%.

Meanwhile, social media footage over the weekend continued to show large groups of Moroccan migrants roaming the streets of the enclave.

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The Center for the Temporary Stay of Immigrants, or CETI, was also completely full. Its capacity is approximately 600 people, while local officials said around 1,000 more were camping outside or in the surrounding area. The numbers may rise further.

Spanish health services recorded 1,622 medical interventions involving migrants between Friday and Sunday. Patients remaining in hospital included people in intensive care, pediatrics and obstetrics, as well as two newborn babies delivered after their mothers reached Ceuta.

Approximately 3,000 soldiers, police officers and members of the Civil Guard remained deployed on Sunday. The force included around 1,600 troops from the permanent military garrison in Ceuta, placed under the direction of the Interior Ministry for surveillance, logistical support and deterrence.

That continuing deployment is another indication that “normality” remains a relative term.

Death Toll Continues to Rise

The number of dead is also disputed.

Spain’s central government had confirmed 72 deaths by Sunday, with five more bodies having been recovered from the coastline that morning. Many drowned while attempting to swim around the breakwater; others were crushed during the surge across the frontier.

Ceuta’s municipal authorities say that 88 bodies have been received at the improvised morgue in the city’s former military hospital. Some of those victims may have died during smaller crossings in the days before Thursday, meaning that the two Spanish totals are not necessarily measuring precisely the same period.

Morocco has separately acknowledged 11 deaths on its side of the border – 10 by drowning and one after a fall from rocks. It remains uncertain whether any of these overlap with the Spanish figures. The real total therefore cannot yet be established, although it is already one of the deadliest incidents ever recorded on this section of Europe’s external frontier.

The former military hospital has reportedly been prepared to hold as many as 200 bodies. Identification teams have been deployed, while families in Morocco have gathered near the frontier or contacted local newspapers seeking information about missing relatives.

Spain Builds a Barrier After the Border Is Breached

Spain’s most visible response over the weekend was the rapid construction of a floating barrier beside the Tarajal breakwater, one of the principal routes used during the crossing.

The pneumatic barrier is 500 meters long, rising between 30 and 70 centimeters above the surface and extending approximately one meter below the water. A separate line of naval buoys has been installed alongside it, with a channel left open for Civil Guard patrol boats.

The structure is intended both to obstruct swimmers and to resolve a legal difficulty created by a recent Spanish Supreme Court judgment. The court ruled that migrants reaching Spanish territory by swimming could not automatically be subjected to immediate “hot returns” if they had not crossed a physical border obstacle. The new floating barrier supplies that obstacle and therefore gives Spanish officers a legal basis to turn swimmers back before they reach the shore.

The barrier appears to have helped stop another mass crossing, although isolated attempts continued on Sunday. The main Civil Guard union has requested at least 200 additional officers and warned that swimmers may still attempt to go around the end of the structure.

The sequence is difficult for Madrid: the barrier was installed only after tens of thousands of people had already crossed and after the government had been warned for days that arrivals by sea were increasing.

Morocco’s Role in Crisis Remains Unresolved

Morocco finally issued a detailed statement on Sunday, three days after the border was breached.

Rabat blamed misleading social-media messages, human-trafficking organizations and misunderstandings surrounding the Supreme Court judgment. It described itself as a “reliable and responsible partner” in the fight against irregular migration.

Spain has largely endorsed that explanation. Pedro Sánchez has called the crossing a violation of Spanish territorial integrity, but has repeatedly praised Morocco’s subsequent cooperation and avoided accusing the Moroccan state of deliberately creating the crisis.

That position sits uneasily with accounts from migrants, journalists and Spanish security officers who said that Moroccan personnel initially stood aside as thousands approached the frontier. Some migrants described the border as effectively open. Morocco began using water cannon, tear gas and large security deployments only after the bulk of the crossing had taken place.

Spanish intelligence officials have reportedly reached an intermediate conclusion: that Morocco did not design the movement from the beginning, but deliberately relaxed its controls, allowed it to develop and then exploited the consequences. The timing coincided with Morocco’s Throne Day celebrations, when border surveillance was reduced.

The episode closely resembles the 2021 Ceuta crisis, when approximately 10,000 people crossed after Morocco loosened its controls during a diplomatic dispute with Madrid. Yet Sánchez’s government has not convened Spain’s National Security Council or activated its formal crisis committee, despite describing the latest incident as an assault on the country’s territorial integrity.

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Europe Responds by Restoring Borders

The European response has been divided between expressions of support for Spain and measures to protect other member states from any onward movement.

Italy introduced one month of targeted border checks for travelers arriving from Spain by air and sea. The checks principally affect non-EU nationals, who must produce valid visas or residence documents; EU citizens remain entitled to travel. France also strengthened controls along its land frontier with Spain.

Leaders from 22 of the EU’s 27 member states signed a letter demanding an emergency meeting of interior ministers. They warned that uncontrolled crossings and the “instrumentalization of migration” could encourage further attempts, and said temporary internal border controls should remain available.

The letter also identified Spain’s regularization of undocumented migrants as a possible pull factor – an accusation rejected by Madrid. Spain, France, Portugal, Luxembourg and Ireland did not sign, although Ireland, as holder of the rotating EU Council presidency, will convene the requested video meeting on Tuesday.

Sánchez responded by accusing some European governments of acting selfishly, unlawfully and for domestic political purposes. Von der Leyen adopted Madrid’s central argument, stressing that none of the migrants was known to have reached mainland Spain or another member state.

That claim is plausible because passengers leaving Ceuta by ferry or air must pass separate identity controls. But it is narrower than the broader claim that the situation has been resolved. It establishes that there has been no confirmed onward movement; it does not establish exactly how many people entered Ceuta, how many returned or where every person who remained is now located.

The EU interior ministers will discuss border security, Frontex assistance and cooperation with Morocco on Tuesday. For the moment, however, Europe’s concrete response has consisted of an emergency meeting, temporary internal controls and a floating barrier constructed after the external border had already been crossed.

Ceuta is calmer. The frontier is again being guarded. Tens of thousands have unquestionably returned to Morocco.

But several thousand people remain, the reception system is overwhelmed, the death toll is unsettled and the official numbers are mutually incompatible. The crisis may have subsided, for now. But confidence in Spain and Europe’s immigration system may take a very long time to recover.