Are the Yellow Vests Coming Back?

Could the Yellow Vests be making a comeback? Eight years after the movement erupted and profoundly shook Emmanuel Macron’s first presidential term, calls for a new mobilization are spreading across social media.

One date keeps appearing: 17 October. Posters and videos circulating on TikTok, Facebook and Instagram are calling on the Yellow Vests to return to the streets that Saturday, with some urging protesters to block gas stations or gather in major cities. The date has consequently become the first test of whether online anger can once again spill onto the streets. For now, however, there is little evidence that a mass movement is taking shape. But enough of the same ingredients are present as in 2018 for the authorities to take the possibility seriously.

In 2018, the immediate trigger was the price of gasoline and, more specifically, a planned fuel tax increase linked to France’s carbon tax. But the anger was never simply about taxes. It reflected a broader sense of social decline, falling purchasing power and the neglect of peripheral areas. The movement was born online, without any political party or union organizing it. A petition against rising fuel prices gathered more than one million signatures. Calls to mobilize spread rapidly on Facebook, while the yellow vest, which every driver was required to keep in the car under French safety regulations, became the symbol of a movement that was both spontaneous and grassroots.

On 17 November 2018, nearly 280,000 people took part in the first major national day of action, with more than 2,100 protests recorded in areas under gendarmerie jurisdiction. Thousands of roundabouts were occupied, sometimes for several weeks. The protests continued every Saturday for months, with particularly dramatic outbreaks of violence, notably in Paris on 1 December, before gradually losing momentum in the spring of 2019. In the meantime, the government had scrapped the fuel tax increase and announced several measures intended to boost purchasing power.

The episode was painful, but the movement retains considerable public sympathy. A survey conducted in June 2026 found that 59% of French voters still viewed the Yellow Vests positively.

Gasoline, Once Again the Spark

The parallels with 2018 are now hard to ignore. Diesel now exceeds €2.30 ($2.67) per liter in national price data, compared with around €1.50 ($1.74) at the start of the Yellow Vests movement. Filling a 60-liter tank therefore costs nearly €50 ($58) more. Some projections suggest diesel could reach €2.53 ($2.93) per liter in the coming weeks if the surge in oil prices continues.

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This surge, however, differs from that of 2018. It is not primarily the result of a French tax decision, but of soaring oil prices amid the war in the Middle East, compounding the broader increase in energy costs triggered by the war in Ukraine. This is precisely the argument the government has used to explain its refusal to repeat the concessions made in 2018. One government adviser has argued that “the situations are in no way comparable” because the current increase is driven by geopolitical tensions.

But French motorists do not feel that distinction in their wallets. According to an Elabe survey published on 10 September, 67% believe their purchasing power has declined in recent months, an increase of 11 percentage points since January. Two-thirds say they do not have enough money to live comfortably, estimating the shortfall at an average of €530 ($614) a month. Nearly three in 10 say they have overdrawn their bank accounts several times over the past 12 months. Fuel prices are particularly sensitive: the average price French respondents consider “unacceptable” is €1.84 ($2.13) per liter. Outside Paris, where a car can be a necessity rather than a luxury, the anger is even more palpable.

The social climate therefore appears ripe for another wave of protest. What remains missing is evidence that online anger can translate into physical mobilization. In 2018, social media activity quickly produced local groups, assemblies and roundabout occupations. Today, such structures appear far less developed. Even Jérôme Rodrigues, a leading figure in the original movement, has questioned where the 17 October date came from and whether the current calls will actually bring people onto the streets. The Yellow Vests may still enjoy considerable public sympathy, but their ability to remobilize remains highly uncertain. Moreover, a new movement may struggle to replicate the scale of 2018 because many people simply cannot afford to lose a day’s work.

From Spontaneous Protest to Political Capture

The response of the authorities nevertheless reflects concern about what could happen. Calls are circulating to block gas stations, “take the Élysée” or provoke a “general shutdown” capable of destabilizing the state. Intelligence agencies have reportedly called for “special vigilance” over gatherings claiming to be part of the Yellow Vests movement.

The political stakes are even higher because several left-wing leaders have already begun trying to harness the discontent. Fabien Roussel, leader of the Communist Party, has called on French people to mobilize at roundabouts, prefectures and centers of power, while Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the presidential candidate for the far-left La France Insoumise (LFI), has made popular mobilization a central pillar of his campaign. At the Fête de l’Humanité, Roussel explicitly called for people to return to the roundabouts, while Mélenchon also placed social mobilization at the heart of his speech. Marine Tondelier, leader of the Greens, has proposed funding fuel subsidies through a tax on excess profits.

This is where one of the major differences from 2018 could come into play. The original movement drew much of its strength precisely from its rejection of political parties and unions. A mobilization that quickly turned into a conventional social movement, complete with established organizations, demands and political actors, could alienate some of those who might otherwise identify with a more diffuse revolt against the political establishment.

On the right, the Rassemblement National (RN) is seeking to seize the initiative on purchasing power without embracing the logic of street protest. Its solution is well established: reduce fuel taxes, notably by lowering VAT from 20% to 5.5% and cutting excise duties. The mechanism is straightforward: by reducing the taxes included in the price at the pump, the state would absorb part of the rise in oil prices rather than motorists. But the proposal faces legal and fiscal obstacles. European law, in particular, sets a minimum standard VAT rate of 15%, making a 5.5% rate on fuel incompatible with existing EU rules.

For now, the government refuses to lower taxes. Government spokesperson Maud Brégeon says she favors targeted assistance, notably the €100 ($116) allowance for frequent drivers and extended support for particularly vulnerable sectors.

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Who Will Ride the Next Wave?

Even some former figures in the Yellow Vests movement fear what a revival could bring. Thierry-Paul Valette believes a new mobilization could be “terrible” and lead to deaths. Fear of violence, combined with memories of the clashes of 2018, could therefore act as a powerful deterrent.

But what if the anger spreading across social media does make the leap onto the streets? France’s political climate is considerably more volatile than it was in 2018. Emmanuel Macron is approaching the end of his second presidential term, his unpopularity is deeply entrenched and the 2027 presidential election is approaching. Any nationwide mobilization over purchasing power would immediately be viewed through an electoral lens.

The National Rally has an obvious opportunity: it can present itself as the defender of those who work for a living while denouncing the government’s refusal to cut taxes. The left will try to channel the same anger into a broader social movement. The government, meanwhile, risks being caught between the fiscal limits of handing out further aid and the political danger of allowing another wave of popular protest to take hold.

Whether 17 October becomes another Saturday of online outrage or the beginning of something much larger remains impossible to know. But if the Yellow Vests do return to France’s roundabouts, they will do so less than seven months before a presidential election. This time, the political consequences could arrive much faster than they did in 2018.