The Threat of an All-Party Coalition

The fifth option is perhaps the most politically fraught. The AfD would emerge as the strongest party but fall short of an absolute majority. Under the Brandmauer, Germany’s so-called firewall barring cooperation with the AfD, all the other parties represented in parliament would form a governing coalition if no other majority were possible. The current state premier, Sven Schulze, would probably be re-elected and lead a coalition comprising the Christian Democratic Union, The Left and any other parties represented in parliament.

Whether the Social Democratic Party, the Greens, the Free Democratic Party and the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance would enter parliament is uncertain, as various polls place them close to the 5% threshold. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU) currently has a formal resolution barring cooperation with The Left. Observers nevertheless widely expect it to be abandoned after 6 September if the AfD fails to win an absolute majority.

All five options remain within the state’s constitutional order. At least in theory, each would permit the peaceful transfer of power customary in a liberal democracy. For the first time in the history of the Federal Republic, however, there is reason to fear both violent unrest after the election, possibly beginning on election night, and attempts to prevent a transfer of power.

According to media reports, police in Saxony-Anhalt are preparing for street clashes if the AfD wins. It bears repeating that this is a German state election, not a vote in a pseudo-democratic developing country.

Violence in the Streets After the Election

Police are bracing for several scenarios. An AfD victory could prompt large left-wing demonstrations, particularly in Magdeburg. AfD supporters celebrating the result could clash with Antifa groups. An anonymous Antifa statement published in June announced plans to storm the state parliament if the AfD wins. The threat to a peaceful transfer of power could therefore extend beyond election night.

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The methods already used before the election to keep the AfD from power are evident in Parliamentary Reform 2026, adopted jointly by the CDU, The Left, the Social Democratic Party, the Free Democratic Party and the Greens in April.

Among other provisions, it changed the rules governing the election of the president of the state parliament and the judges of the state constitutional court. Unless the AfD wins an absolute majority of seats, the party is now excluded from these positions.

The ideas currently being discussed go considerably further. ARD, Germany’s public broadcaster, has discussed another possibility. Article 37 of Germany’s Basic Law permits federal coercive measures if a state fails to fulfill its obligations under federal law.

These measures could include federal authorities issuing instructions to state authorities. According to a widely held interpretation of constitutional law, they could also include the appointment of a federal commissioner to intervene in the state administration.

A democratically elected state government could thereby be deprived of power in practice. Critics point out, however, that the legal barriers would be high.

Considering a Coup

Several weeks ago, Sven Hüber, then deputy chairman of the German Police Union, wrote in the union’s newspaper that police officers might have to refuse allegiance to an AfD government if the party won the election.

He also pointed out that state riot police units could, on instructions from the federal interior minister, be deployed alongside the Federal Police and police forces from other states to restore the constitutional order – an undisguised call for a coup against a democratically elected government.

Other proposals concern a swift ban on the AfD. This would immediately prevent the party from governing because a banned party would lose its parliamentary seats. Susan Sziborra-Seidlitz, the Greens’ lead candidate in Saxony-Anhalt, publicly criticized the failure to initiate proceedings to ban the party on 26 August.

This scenario is not realistic. In Germany, only the Federal Constitutional Court can ban a political party, and such proceedings take years.

Interior ministers from several German states have discussed precautionary measures in recent weeks in case the AfD enters government. Thuringia’s Interior Minister Georg Maier even used the word “coup” when discussing possible consequences. Hesse’s Interior Minister Roman Poseck spoke of preparations for a “worst-case scenario”. Democratically elected governments are therefore seriously and publicly considering the overthrow of another government that would itself have come to power democratically.

Measures Against the Democratic Verdict

Taken together, the publicly discussed proposals range from denying Siegmund access to classified information as state premier and excluding Saxony-Anhalt from the Conference of State Premiers to restricting the state’s rights in the Bundesrat and deploying the Federal Police or police forces from other states.

The Bundesrat represents Germany’s states at the federal level. Its approval is required for legislation affecting certain interests and responsibilities of the states.

The scenarios therefore range from a peaceful election night to burning streets in Magdeburg and Berlin, and from an orderly democratic transfer of power to the ultimate possibility of an AfD state government being removed by force.

Against this background, describing the Saxony-Anhalt election as Germany’s fateful election is entirely realistic.

This is the reality in which the country now finds itself. The campaign against the largest opposition party at the federal level has reached grotesque proportions.

In eastern Germany, the AfD has long since become a major party with broad popular support. At the same time, in several states and at the federal level, it has been classified as confirmed right-wing extremist on the basis of carelessly assembled reports, some of which have already been rejected by the courts.

However, there is no question that the AfD has a number of representatives whose views on Germany’s liberal democratic constitutional order are deeply unpalatable.

Will Germany Remain a Democracy?

If that were sufficient grounds for a ban, closer attention would also have to be paid to those state ministers and public officials who are now preparing options for the overthrow of a potentially democratically elected AfD government.

So far, no one has dared to file an application with the Federal Constitutional Court in Karlsruhe seeking to ban the AfD. At present, such an application would have no prospect of success, and everyone knows it.

During the night of 6 to 7 September and in the weeks that follow, Germany will make decisions that determine its future. The expected electoral disaster for the CDU and Social Democratic Party may not bring down the federal government immediately, but only because all the established parties will unite in the campaign against the right.

Whether the Social Democratic Party’s national leadership survives the result in Magdeburg is another matter. In the end, only one question truly matters: after the election in Saxony-Anhalt, will power be transferred peacefully from the loser to the winner, or will it not?

If so, we can hope to continue living in a liberal democratic Germany for years to come. If, however, the winner is denied the right to assume power, it would mark a fundamental rupture. Whatever the reasons and whatever procedural devices are used, the conclusion would then be unavoidable: Germany’s citizens would not yet be living under a dictatorship, but nor would they still be living in a democracy.