The Kremlin refers to the invasion of Ukraine, which began on 24 February 2022, as a “special military operation”, not a war. Moscow has not formally declared war on Ukraine. Martial law has, however, been in force since October 2022 in the four Ukrainian regions Russia claims to have annexed – Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – while several Russian border regions are subject to a lower “medium response” regime.
Both the presidential election two years ago and the latest State Duma election included voting in Russian-controlled parts of those four Ukrainian regions. Russia does not control the regions in full, so residents in areas held by Ukraine could not participate in the Russian vote.
From the Ballot Box to the Draft Office
Local media in the Vladimir region reported that commanders had forced conscripts to vote for United Russia.
“Some say that an officer directly supervised how they voted, while others say they were subjected to verbal pressure and forced to vote for the ruling party”, the regional media outlet reported.
Military recruitment, driven by attractive pay, continued until shortly before the election. But soon after polling stations opened, reports began circulating about a possible mobilization that would also affect those unwilling to sign a contract with the Ministry of Defense.
After voting electronically via the State Services app, some Muscovites received a “notification of registration in the registry of persons subject to military service”. Other such cases were also reported in the media.
In Novosibirsk, male voters received draft notices outright. Others were strongly urged to sign contracts with the Ministry of Defense, formally joining the military voluntarily rather than through mobilization. A video from the scene also surfaced.
The Mobilization Question
Lieutenant Colonel Maksym Zhorin, deputy commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps, warned in July that Russia appeared to be preparing its population for another mobilization. In a post on Telegram, he argued that Ukraine should aim to inflict 50,000 Russian casualties a month in response.
Czech President Petr Pavel told the Telegraph in early July that Putin might declare a general mobilization after the September elections. He argued that efforts to achieve peace should therefore be intensified.
Eight sources working with or connected to the presidential administration, military enlistment offices and security services told the Russian émigré outlets Vyorstka and Important Stories in late June that they had heard of a possible mobilization in the fall, potentially in October after the elections. They stressed, however, that no decision had been made.
Reports that another mobilization could be imminent were also used to pressure Russians, including released prisoners, into signing military contracts, while recruiters targeted vulnerable groups and sought to entice university students with financial and academic incentives.
On 16 July, Andriy Chernyak, a representative of Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), said the Kremlin would avoid discussing mobilization before the elections for fear of the public reaction. He added that Russia already had sufficient training facilities and would not need to build new infrastructure for a possible mobilization.
According to Chernyak, Russia simply needed more “cannon fodder”, while the possibility of mobilization after the elections remained open. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had expressed a similar view a day earlier. The Kremlin has continued to deny the possibility of mobilization since the elections.
A report by analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that the Kremlin has long been preparing for both mobilization and the civil unrest that such a move could trigger, although the analysts stop short of saying that Putin has decided to proceed with it.
At the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok on 3 September, Putin denied that Russia was preparing a new mobilization, saying there was “no scenario” in which one was currently necessary.
On the day voting began, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, responding to a Bloomberg report, said Moscow did not intend to mobilize 300,000 reservists by the end of the year.
