Goldman Sachs already has a likely winner for the upcoming World Cup: Spain. The bank’s economists say the prediction follows a historical pattern that has proved remarkably persistent. After a South American team wins the title, the trophy returns to Europe at the next tournament.
The US bank gives Spain a 26% probability of winning the World Cup, which takes place this year in the US, Canada and Mexico and starts in less than two weeks. Goldman Sachs economists base that judgment on a detailed analysis of the historical success rate of each participating national team, as well as other variables such as the players’ talent level. The projection is largely inspired by the Elo rating, a system originally created for chess players.
In the bank’s ranking, Spain, winner of the World Cup 16 years ago, comes ahead of Argentina and France. Its chances have been boosted by a favorable assessment of its players’ talent, Goldman Sachs said. France has a 19% chance of winning this year’s title, while third-placed Argentina, the defending champion, has a 14% probability.
Spain and France are likely to meet in the semi-finals, the bank predicts, while Argentina and Brazil are expected to face each other.
