In an interview with The Economist, entrepreneur Elon Musk claims that artificial intelligence (AI) is advancing faster than most people realize. Within five years, he estimates, AI systems will surpass the combined capabilities of humanity, and within a decade, they will take over most mental and physical work.
The result, he predicts, will be a society in which work becomes optional rather than essential, and money gradually loses its meaning.
In an economy of near-limitless machine production, he argues, falling demand and deflation will pose a greater threat than inflation.
He therefore proposes that governments introduce a universal basic income, simply paying people money outright. He says he is prepared to pay trillions in taxes, even though, in his view, money will have largely lost its meaning within 10 years.
In his view, an economy in which AI and robots generate a surplus of everything people could want need not end in catastrophe. Instead, it could usher in an era of extraordinary abundance. At the same time, he acknowledges that the risk of catastrophe is not zero, and that humanity will likely lose control of superintelligent AI within a decade.
He therefore proposes that leading American and Chinese laboratories cross-check the safety of new models before their release, and alert governments to any risks. For the sake of the world, he says, he is even willing to set aside his personal feud with Sam Altman of OpenAI.
A Detour into Geopolitics
Geopolitics also features prominently in the interview. Musk reiterates that any peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine should include territorial concessions to Russia, even though his Starlink is providing significant assistance to Ukraine.
He takes issue with the labeling of Europe's right-wing parties as far-right, arguing that their supporters are ordinary people who simply want safe cities, secure borders and sensible public spending.
On migration, he predicts that the United Kingdom will face civil war within 20 years if the influx of people holding views incompatible with Western values continues. Asked whether he is against Muslims, he replies that he is against rape, murder and the imposition of rules that contradict Western norms.
At the same time, he concedes that he let himself get carried away, more than he had originally intended, while working at the now-defunct Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) after Trump took office. Even so, he gives no sign of wanting to step back from public debate on political issues.
He is also critical of efforts by some in the Trump administration to restrict Chinese AI models, arguing that China, thanks to its manufacturing capacity, energy resources and robotics, has a good chance of taking the lead in AI, and is closer to producing state-of-the-art chips than most people realize.
Keeping AI in Check
Despite his optimism about abundance, Musk acknowledges that increasingly powerful AI poses serious security risks. He backs the idea of competing laboratories reviewing each other's new models, with governments stepping in should serious concerns arise.
The approach marks a shift from his earlier, more alarmist warnings, when he likened AI to summoning a demon. Now, he says, we should simply enjoy the ride, since the pace of development cannot be stopped.
Society, he argues, should brace for a civilizational transition compressed into roughly 10 years.
He also reaffirms his space ambitions, with plans for a crewed mission to Mars as early as 2028.