An analysis of the latest rounds of polls conducted among French voters following the announcement of Marine Le Pen’s candidacy in July reveals a new and far-reaching trend: for the first time, the Rassemblement National (RN) candidate is projected to win a majority of the vote among French retirees. This major shift could tip the outcome of the election.
In the spring of 2027, Le Pen is virtually certain to advance to the second round of the presidential election. In that scenario, she would garner around 55% of the vote among French citizens over 65 against the centrist candidates who are Macron’s successors and up to 82% against Jean-Luc Mélenchon. This is completely unprecedented, since until now, retirees have constituted the bedrock of the Macronist electorate – and its guarantee of success, election after election.
Why Seniors No Longer Fear the RN
For a long time, retirees and French citizens over the age of 65 represented the age group most reluctant to cast a ballot for the RN. Several factors helped explain this behavior: since the oldest French citizens had lived through World War II, they were the most sensitive to the inflammatory rhetoric of the party’s founder, Jean-Marie Le Pen, and to the accusations of antisemitism leveled against him. The argument about the specter of fascism or the threat to democracy held some sway over them.
Deeply attached to the postwar European ideal, retirees were also very concerned about the Euroskeptic positions espoused by the main national right-wing party, which had long included leaving the euro in its platform. They saw this as a major risk of impoverishment and a devaluation of their savings.
These arguments no longer hold water today. The generation closest to the war is passing away, and new retirees are less susceptible than in the past to official rhetoric about the fascist threat. At the same time, senior voters clearly recognize the danger posed by the far left and the excesses of La France Insoumise.
As for the RN, its stance has shifted. There is no longer any talk of leaving the European Union or abandoning the single currency. Today’s RN, firmly established in the European Parliament alongside its partners within a group of growing influence, advocates the idea that reform from within is possible.
It would therefore seem that the long and arduous effort by the founder’s daughter to de-demonize the party is now beginning to bear fruit among this segment of the electorate.
Crime and Immigration Take Center Stage
French commentators interpret this development differently. For some, it is the logical outcome of a fundamental, more or less inevitable dynamic that is broadly in line with the rest of the population. For others, it represents a turning point and a break from the past.
Other political and social factors must be considered. The traditional right-wing electorate among retirees cannot help but note the inability of the historic center-right party Les Républicains (LR) to offer a credible political voice or direction. Compromised by its repeated participation in Macronist governments, the party does not appear to have the necessary resolve to address today’s challenges – challenges that do not spare retirees: purchasing power, taxation, but above all immigration and the surge in insecurity.
These issues, which until recently were considered the exclusive domain of the RN, are now seen as central – and therefore matters of consensus. For several months now, French news has been dominated by a surge in incidents involving the elderly: rapes, assaults and burglaries – some of which have been particularly shocking given the victims’ age and the methods employed by the attackers of immigrant origin.
In January, a 90-year-old woman was raped in her home in Nice. The suspect, a Tunisian national, was the subject of an unexecuted deportation order. The combination of the victim’s advanced age and the intrusion into her home by an illegal immigrant gave this case significant political repercussions.
A few months later, in Romainville, a 74-year-old woman was raped and tortured for nearly an hour in her apartment. The suspect, who was arrested shortly afterward, identified himself as an Algerian national. The exceptional violence of the incident also garnered extensive media coverage.
Faced with this descent into barbarism that some elderly people are experiencing, respectable candidates such as former Macronist prime ministers Édouard Philippe and Gabriel Attal or former Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau of LR no longer appear to offer sufficient reassurance.
In the first round, Gabriel Attal is projected to receive only 19% of the vote among retirees – a slap in the face for someone who, just a few months ago, was still portrayed by some sections of the press as the darling of the elderly. Political scientist Stéphane Fournier describes this as a “radical yet now serene” vote in favor of the RN.
The Electoral Shift That Could Decide 2027
Finally, the RN is undoubtedly benefiting from the disastrous record of Emmanuel Macron’s two terms in office on public order and social cohesion. For years, one of the main arguments put forward by the RN’s opponents was that its rise to power would plunge the country into chaos. But since Macron’s election, the French have had to endure the Yellow Vests crisis, the riots following the death of young Nahel in 2023 and the repeated violence and looting of cities after soccer matches – to name just a few examples.
It is hard to imagine that things could be any worse with an RN head of state. In fact, there is growing hope that the country would finally be better governed. The political center no longer embodies the promise of public order.
The shift among older voters toward the RN is a trend worth scrutinizing closely. Since the beginning of the Fifth Republic, every president except François Hollande in 2012 has owed his victory in part to the support of retirees.